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SOUTH WEST FIRST

LETTER FROM STRASBOURG 

March 2001

CLUNK CLICK

Fasten your seatbelts.  In a radical reversal of recent practice the travel story will come last and I will talk about Harrogate and the budget before Strasbourg.

MAKE OUR DAY TONY

Harrogate was the venue for a special briefing session for MPs, PPCs, and (for the first time) MEPs on preparations for you know what, followed by the Party Spring Convention.  As usual, I received a very different impression actually being there from that projected by media and press comment, and came away reinforced in my view that we shall do very much better than they suggest, whenever old 'sincerity' Tony plucks up courage to press the start button.

MY TOP TEN

How can that be, chorus the 'moaning minnies', pollsters, pundits and chattering classes, when the Conservatives are so far behind in the opinion polls?  Well, I've made a little list during sundry travel time and while lying in the bath contemplating things, so here goes.

POPULAR VOTE/MORE SEATS

First there is the precedent of two years ago.  In February 1999 we Conservatives were languishing miles behind in the polls and the 'know it alls' were predicting that we might only win 3-4 seats in the European Parliament elections in June.  What actually happened was that we won the largest share of the popular vote, we won the greatest number of seats and we won the argument to boot under our slogan 'In Europe - not run by it'.

ITS BEEN DONE BEFORE

Second, another precedent, in 1970 we were behind in the polls under a leader the press enjoyed castigating

and up against a Chancellor of the Exchequer who was able to boast he had balanced the Budget.  What actually happened was we won that election with a comfortable majority.

LABOUR LOSS OUR GAIN

Third precedent.  After a landslide victory by Labour in 1945, they approached the 1950 election confidently after nationalising nearly everything in sight and devaluing the pound (as they did in 1967), yet struggled to get a majority of less than twenty before losing an early election within two years.

CLEAR POLICY STRONG VOTE

Fourth.  The opinion polls may seem to remain unchanged from May Day 1997 but I believe three critical factors in that election no longer apply.  The high level of Tory abstentions will reverse itself after four years of New Labour.  The damage done by the Referendum Party will be reversed now we Conservatives have a clear policy on Europe and the euro.  And the effects of tactical voting will be cancelled because the motivation of dislike for a Conservative Government has largely dissipated.

CAST IRON RESULTS

Fifth.  In actual elections at local government level across the country with real votes being cast, not opinion poll projections, we have been gaining seats and share of votes from both Labour and Lib Dems.  There have been some examples of spectacular swings to us along with one or two results against the trend such as the Romsey by-election, but overall there has been a marked swing back to Conservative.

LOW LABOUR TYPES

Sixth. There are clear signs of a much stronger intention to vote among Conservative supporters, whereas there is a marked lack of enthusiasm among Labour supporters.  Old Labour supporters don't much like Tony Blair on many of the policies he pursues, whereas new Labour types are complacent, believe the opinion polls and think it is all over bar the shouting.  In a low turnout these differential voting patterns will be critical.

LIB/DEMS TAX SPEND

Seventh.  Lib Dems only do well as a protest vote against Conservative governments, as was the case with the old Liberals before them.  They have a real identity problem now because they are no longer in the centre, they have moved to the Left with tax and spend policies but still haven't a clue what they are for, except being against the Conservatives.  Furthermore, plenty of areas have now experienced them in local government for long enough to reject them in local elections, spectacularly so in some cases.

HARVEST TIME

Eighth.  Labour has traditionally relied on winning a majority of seats in Scotland and Wales in order to form a government, yet they are about to reap a bitter harvest from their constitutional change to devolution in both countries.  The European elections showed us we were recovering ground and the Scottish Parliament/Welsh Assembly elections showed the way for an increased nationalist representation in the House of Commons, at the expense of Labour, next time.

DEFEATING ARROGANCE

Ninth.  The Great British electorate has an instinct for fair play and balance as well as, from time to time, the need for change.  In 1997 change was on the menu with an over-riding desire to get the Tories out.  Now it sees the way an arrogant government with an overwhelming majority can disregard and by-pass the House of Commons because the opposition is numerically too weak.  There will be a feeling of a need to at least close the gap.

TAX&SPEND-LABOUR'S END?

Tenth.  One remarkable feature of this new Labour government has been the way it managed to build on rather than mess up the strong economy it inherited.  The smug complacency displayed in the recent Budget was therefore understandable up to a point.  Two points really.  The Chancellor let the cat out of the bag with his future spending projections showing increases which both OECD and the European Commission regard as unsustainable and excessive.  Back to tax and spend in other words.  The other point is the indicators of change in the global economic outlook which are already spooking the markets.  Unease about the economy will undermine people's confidence in the government.

LABOUR SPIN AND FROTH

Which brings me to the Budget.  I watched part of the speech on television and at first I felt oppressed by the confident presentation and all the figures which seemed so good.  Then my instinctive reaction was to ask myself what did the small print say and what was left out altogether.  I like the description used by one commentator in the press portraying the budget as a cappuccino, all froth on top but for me two statistics extracted from the Inland Revenue's own figures told the real story behind the spin.

TAX BURDEN WE PAY

Overall tax revenues are now 34% higher after four years of new Labour stealth tax rises, but income tax receipts are 43% higher than they were in the last year of a Conservative Government.  Truly, we've paid the tax, but where are the services?  All spin and no delivery?  Well at least they have delivered much higher taxes, but didn't they promise taxes would not go up?

'STRESS-BOURG' PILES UP

While you are chewing that one over, let me move to Strasbourg.  Usually I mention travel (that comes later this week) and the pile of faxes and printed e-mails that await my arrival, without giving any idea of the sort of thing I have to deal with, so this time I made a list.  There were 27 things requiring attention or action in one way or another.  I haven't space for all of them, let alone to explain what each one was about, but here is a sample.

TOO MANY CHOICES

A request for me to sponsor an exhibition about energy in the Parliament.  A note from the Visitor Programme asking for a time in two or three weeks time to meet a visitor from the USA Congress staff.  A brief from UK Rep on the directive on Access to Environmental Information (18 pages of it).  A letter from the British Geological Survey requesting a meeting in Brussels in a month.  Notice of the General Assembly meeting of the European Energy Foundation (of which I am a Vice-President).  A choice between two events same time, same day the next week, the EU American Chamber of Commerce had it by virtue of location.

VARIETY - THE SPICE OF LIFE

A draft letter to approve to go out as a cover letter for a longer one about UKIP to colleagues in the South West.  A number of letters and e-mails lobbying on the question of the second reading of the draft directive on the limitation of emissions of certain pollutants into the air from large combustion plants.  A note from the Parliament services dealing with insurance of laptop computers.  A brief from UK Rep on the Commission seven point plan for the beef sector.  A long paper giving details of a proposal from Energy Intelligent  Europe listing all sorts of ideas for improving energy efficiency.

AND SO IT GOES ON

A reminder to write a memo about proposals to reorganise the Committee structure of the Parliament in so far as they may affect my Industry Committee.  A reminder to follow up an initiative to hold a meeting between EPP-ED (European Peoples Party -European Democrats) members on the Energy Committee and our CDU-CSU counterparts in the German Bundestag.  A fat print-out of a paper from the Treasury outlining the Labour government proposals for Economic Reform in Europe (I have yet to catch up with that one).  Check, sign and despatch a letter to an Austrian colleague about a case raised by a constituent at home.  A note of a meeting with the NFU vice-president to be briefed on the foot and mouth crisis.

LAST MINUTE STAND-IN

In addition I had a phone message that a German colleague was unwell and unable to attend to speak in the first debate that afternoon on a report about safe transport of nuclear material, so would I do it for him.  This meant a) arranging with the session services to accept my substitution and b) writing a speech.  With only two minutes available you might think it easy, but being tight on time makes content all the more important to get a few points across effectively. 

FARMERS AGENDA

At the opening of the session the main point at issue was the agenda and whether there should be an extra item to cover the foot and mouth crisis.  Colleagues from Ireland led the demands for a statement from the Commission and after a bit of procedural debate we voted in favour.  Given all that our farmers are going through with this latest hammer blow on top of everything else it seemed the least we could do.

PRESENTING ACCOUNTS

I had one or two other things on my plate.  First, in my capacity as Hon Treasurer of our delegation of Conservative MEPs, I had to present our annual audited accounts for approval and to be granted discharge of my responsibility.  The auditors had only completed them the previous Friday and I needed to go through them with our delegation accountant (he does the work, I'm the front man) to anticipate questions and prepare more detailed responses.

GREEN SWEDES

We had two reports from the Industry, External Trade, Research and Energy Committee on the agenda for the week.  One was on the Commission action programme for energy efficiency and this posed certain difficulties.  My Swedish colleague in the EPP who was the Rapporteur is somewhat on the green side of things and argued strongly for a chapter on energy to be put in the Treaty and in favour of energy taxes to combat pollution.

ENERGY TAXES OPPOSED

As British spokesman I am opposed to granting further powers in this area to the Commission, not least because they don't need them, and have serious reservations about indiscriminate use of carbon energy taxes when there are better, more practical ways to cut down on CO2 and other greenhouse gas emissions.  Fortunately for me there were a number of colleagues from other national delegations similarly opposed, so we agreed to have free votes on the particularly contentious bits of text.  The rest of it was good stuff, on the whole, given that it is

difficult to be against energy efficiency in general.

BIOTECH BLUES

The other report was on the future of biotechnology.  The Rapporteur was a fellow Conservative MEP, John Purvis from Scotland, and he had worked hard to try to bridge some strongly divergent views on the subject.  The very word biotechnology is enough to get people jumping with anxiety about GM (genetic modification) and cloning and all the ethical considerations involved.  The thrust of the Report was that we cannot afford to turn our backs on this area of science both because of the benefits in terms of health and quality of life which it can produce, but also because it will be an increasingly important source of economic growth.  At present the USA dominates the field but the UK is the leading country in Europe for biotech industry and research work.

THE LONGEST DAY

Tuesday was a long day because I had to speak on the Energy Efficiency Report last thing on the agenda at around 11 p.m.  I won't list all the other meetings through the day except to say I was granted discharge for those accounts by my colleagues and to mention the lunchtime speech by Mr Morningstar, the U.S. Ambassador to the EU.  This was at the Kangaroo Club originally founded by a British Conservative MEP Basil de Farranti long ago, with the aim of encouraging free movement of goods and services, people and capital within the then European Community.  The Ambassador was pretty robust on the American position about a number of trade disputes over such things as bananas, beef hormones, Airbus and foreign sales corporations which suggests that early resolution might be difficult to achieve short of conceding everything!

DAMAGE TO RURAL LIFE

Wednesday was noteworthy for the early meeting with Tim Bennett of the N.F.U. discussing aspects of the foot and mouth crisis and the way that MAFF is handling it.  He was not optimistic that the disease would be contained and eradicated early.  He was not critical of Government handling of the issue so far, but one senses that as time goes on and things get worse, there will be more and more questions about how it came to the U.K. in the first place and all the delays between reporting, diagnosing, confirming, slaughtering and disposal, not to mention why the lessons from the 1967 outbreak have not been implemented fully with regard to burial rather than incineration or transport to a rendering plant.  My other big concern is the way this disaster is engulfing swathes of businesses in the tourist and other industries through no fault of their own.  Recovery will be difficult.

LONG DELAYS

Thursday turned out to be another long day for reasons I had not anticipated but connected with foot and mouth.  I was due to travel back on a flight from Stuttgart early that evening.  Normally that involves a drive of 1½ - 2 hours, but I had heard rumours of delays at the Franco-German border because of hygiene checks for possible foot and mouth carriers, so I asked the office which organises the transport if we should go earlier.  No problem I was told, it has been cleared so you can leave at 3 p.m.

DOUBLE TAKE

With two other colleagues I duly set off on time.  We found a long queue approaching one border crossing and the driver decided to double back, use another crossing and go across country avoiding the motorways.  Well, we crossed into Germany no problem, but on cross-country single carriageway roads you have to go at the speed of the slowest truck or other vehicle.  Let me tell you that they have tractors on the roads in Germany just like we do at home when you are in a hurry.  To compound matters our driver did not have a map and did not know where we were coming into Stuttgart.

CLOSE ENCOUNTER

The result was a close encounter with rush hour going into, through and out of Stuttgart, before we finally reached the airport at least half an hour after our flight had gone.  I'm afraid the driver didn't get a tip.  Fortunately dear old BA was able to get us on good old BMI (British Midland International) for a flight later that evening, so things could have been worse.  Indeed, as my mother used to say, worse things have happened at sea!